WP9: The creation of value-added in the “smart” bioeconomy
Value creation in the bioeconomy depends on not only on production technology and market conditions for final products and inputs, but also on how much and which parts of the value chain are in Norway. Value chains in the Norwegian bioeconomy currently involve processing and supplier industries to varying degrees. However, these parts of the chain often provide (or capture) a relatively large part of the value creation, and also represent the largest potential for growth, as they may be largely independent from the biological production capacity in the country. For Norway as a state and for policies in this area both the national contribution to value creation from the segments of the bioeconomy and their regional distribution are interesting. Based on scenarios developed in the foresight analysis in WP2, resource assessments from WP6, and spatial distribution from WP7, this WP will estimate national and rural level value creation in the different segments of the bioeconomy in 2030. The building blocks to estimate future value creation are value creation today in the different segments, assessments of how changes in demand foresighted in WP2 for major classes of inputs and products may affect prices, possible volume changes for the different product segments, and also assessments of possible rationalisation effects. Economic sustainability for the scenarios will be analysed by region and within and across bioeconomic sectors.
Objectives: To examine
(1) What is the current value creation in the different segments of the bioeconomy in Norway?
(2) How might demand and prices for input factors and products change?
(3) How might the value creation in the different segments of the Norwegian bioeconomy evolve? and
(4) How may the value creation in the Norwegian bioeconomy be in 2030, both by industry segments and spatially?
Method: Value creation estimates must be based on accounting data for public limited companies, segmented by relevant NACE numbers (the Standard Industrial Classification), provided by the National Bureau of Statistics (SSB). Companies’ NACE classifications are not always correct, and measures to avoid double counting must be made, but for our purpose this should be acceptable. Other data sources include public authorities, industry associations, research reports and interviews. Scenarios for development of production capacity and demand for relevant inputs and products will be based on WP2, and translated into monetary variables (prices) based on previous empirical and theoretical research, simple economic modelling, and qualitative input from expert opinion.
Output: An assessment of value creation for scenarios developed in WP2.
WP leader: Dr Eirik Mikkelsen, NORUT Additional participants: CRR, NFLI.