WP6: Resource distribution in the “smart” bioeconomy
The full transition to a bioeconomy will require a massive shift in resource use. In terms of biomass, there are production limitations in the natural Norwegian ecosystems, but modern agriculture and aquaculture have demonstrated that the production volumes can be multiplied through technology, and with advanced biotechnology and market and commercialisation know-how the value creation can be multiplied even further. What can be counted as resources, and how valuable they are depends on technological and market developments and conditions. The individual foresight analysis WP2a will provide input on the types of bioeconomy-relevant resources likely or possibly in demand in 2030.
Objective: The objective of WP6 is to provide a current status for the Norwegian bioeconomy-relevant biological, industrial and human resources, and to provide qualitative and quantitative estimates for the future under scenario conditions developed in WP2. There are 4 main questions to address, namely: (1) what is the current status for biological biomass resources in Norway from forestry, agriculture and the marine environment, in terms of annual availability, fluctuations and use? Do the resources meet 2030’s needs identified in WP2? (2) What relevant human resources are available today, and likely in 2030, in terms of human capital (education, demography), and R&D activities (infrastructure, research-effort and spending)? (3) What types and capacity for industrial processing for major types of biological resources and products is present today and could be likely in 2030? (4) Where are the bioeconomic industrial clusters in Norway currently, and what resources do the different clusters have access to/require?
Method: Data used in this WP will come from various sources, including the National Bureau of Statistics (SSB), public authorities, industry associations, research reports and interviews. Estimates of natural biological carrying capacity, together with estimates for demography and trend-based projections of investments and technological development form the basis for the 2030 projections. Analysis will involve researchers and expertise from the fisheries (NORUT), agriculture (CRR) and forestry (NFLI) fields.
Outputs: This WP will contribute data and summary information to help (a) the construction of the integrated visions (WP2b), and (b) the exploration of potential cluster locations for bioeconomic development (WP7). Summary information will be made available to all other WPs on request.
WP leader: Dr Eirik Mikkelsen, NORUT. Additional participants: CRR, NIBIO